Modeling and Analysing the Propagation of Uncertainty

Shallow-water environments have become increasingly important for naval operations. Unfortunately, these regions are also characterized by ocean variability and, due to typically downward-refracting conditions, an increased sensitivity to bottom properties. Of course, bottom properties are also often poorly known, especially in shallow water. As a result, there is a lot of concern about 1) how to improve our knowledge of the variabilty and 2) providing error bars so that a predicted transmission loss can be assessed taking into account an idea of its reliability. The goal of this work is to address both these issues. Note that variability in this discussion refers to both temporal and spatial changes.